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Housing Will Continue to Moderate in 2009

Housing Will Continue to Moderate in 2009

OTTAWA, February 19, 2009 — Housing starts reached 211,056 units in 2008, a decrease from 228,343 in 2007, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) first quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition* report. Starts are expected to be about 160,250 for 2009 and about 163,350 for 2010.

“The new home market is moderating due to a number of key factors,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC.  “The economic downturn will result in a decrease in demand for home ownership leading to a decline in housing starts and existing home sales in 2009. Housing market activity will begin to strengthen as the Canadian economy rebounds in 2010 and the level of housing starts over the forecast period will be more in line with demographic fundamentals.”

Existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®)1, are expected to decline 14.6 per cent during 2009 to 370,500 units.  In 2010 the level of MLS® sales is expected to increase by 9.3 per cent to 405,000 units. The average MLS® price is also expected to decrease over the course of 2009. Average prices are forecast to be $287,900 for 2009, a decline of 5.2 per cent, while 2010 will see little change from 2009 average prices.

As Canada’s national housing agency, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

National Housing Outlook

Key Housing Market Indicators

 2008
Actual
2009
Forecasts
2010
Forecasts
Total housing starts (units)211,056160,250163,350
Forecast Ranges 141,000 – 180,000143,000 – 180,000
Total single-detached houses93,20274,82576,600
Forecast Ranges 65,800 – 83,80068,600 – 84,600
Total multiple housing units117,85485,42586,750
Forecast Ranges 75,200 – 96,20074,400 – 95,400
Total MLS® sales1433,990370,500405,000
Forecast Ranges 344,000 – 395,000360,000 – 420,000
Average MLS® selling price ($)303,607287,900288,100
Forecast Ranges $270,000 – $305,000$270,000 – $310,000

Provincial Housing Outlook

Total Housing Starts

 2008
Actual
2009
Forecasts
2010
Forecasts
Newfoundland and Labrador3,2612,6752,775
Prince Edward Island712575625
Nova Scotia3,9823,6753,900
New Brunswick4,2743,4753,650
Quebec47,90140,70040,500
Ontario75,07658,25059,700
Manitoba5,5374,7485,000
Saskatchewan6,8284,1414,500
Alberta29,16419,20022,000
British Columbia34,32122,80020,700

Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition, First Quarter 2009.

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